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The South Asia Leapfrog Thesis Is Mostly Wrong

India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan are often cited as AI beneficiaries. The simulation suggests the story is far more conditional than the headlines.

GAMES Research Desk·May 2026·7 min read·Scenario: Leapfrog Optimistic vs. Baseline
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Key Findings
  • India benefits only in scenarios with simultaneous digital infrastructure investment.
  • Bangladesh faces net-negative outcomes in 3 of 5 scenarios due to garment sector exposure.
  • The leapfrog thesis holds only where institutions can absorb rapid sectoral shifts.