GAMES · Policy Laboratory · PREMIUM

Welcome to Policy Lab

A global economic simulation for governments, economists, and policy advisors. Choose a group of countries, design a tax or spending policy for one of them, and run the world economy forward in time — comparing the result against a no-policy baseline. Every output shows you exactly what the policy is causing, year by year.

01 — The Four Analyses

Each answers a different question

POLICY TEST

What happens if we change our policy?

Pick a country, adjust its corporate tax rate or government spending, and see what happens to the world economy over the next several years — compared to doing nothing. This is the core analysis: does your policy help or hurt, and by how much?

WHO FOLLOWS?

When do other countries copy us?

Some policies only work if other countries don't undercut you. This analysis tests: what if only you act? What if half the group follows? What if everyone adopts the same policy? It finds the tipping point where the policy becomes globally dominant — and shows how much advantage you gain by acting first.

RIVALS REACT

What if a rival country responds?

Policy doesn't happen in isolation. When your country raises taxes, a competitor might cut theirs to attract business. This simulates two rounds of fiscal competition: your move first, then a rival responds. After both moves, every country is ranked by economic position.

CRISIS TEST

What if interest rates spike suddenly?

This applies a sudden global shock on top of your normal scenario: interest rates rise by 1 percentage point (for both short and long-term borrowing), and capital becomes 5% more likely to move to lower-tax countries. It shows which economies are most vulnerable to these combined pressures.

02 — How to Use This Tool

Four steps to your first result

Choose your countries

In the sidebar, enter 2–10 country codes separated by commas — e.g. GBR,USA,DEU,JPN. Pick one as your focus country whose policy you're testing. Use 3-letter ISO codes: GBR = UK, USA, DEU = Germany, JPN = Japan, FRA = France, CHN = China…

Design the policy

Use the sliders to set a corporate tax change or public spending change. A '+1% tax change' means raising the rate by 1 percentage point — for example, from 20% to 21%. You can adjust both levers at once, and choose when the policy kicks in.

Choose your question

Pick one of the four analysis tabs above. POLICY TEST shows the direct economic effect. WHO FOLLOWS? finds the global adoption tipping point. RIVALS REACT simulates a competitor's countermove. CRISIS TEST stress-tests with a sudden rate shock.

Read the results

Every output compares your policy against a no-policy baseline run, so you see exactly what the policy causes — not just where the economy ends up. Use 'Run All' in the nav bar to run all four analyses at once.

03 — Model Parameters

What the background settings mean

The "Global AI Environment" section in the sidebar controls the world conditions your policy operates in — not your country's policy itself. These are background assumptions shared by all countries. The policy levers (tax change, spending change) define what one government does; these parameters define the physics of the global economy.

AI Productivity GainAdjustable

How much more productive AI makes workers and machines at full adoption. 45% means a fully AI-enabled economy produces 45% more output for the same inputs.

Price Pass-ThroughAdjustable

Of every dollar of productivity gain, how much reaches consumers as lower prices versus staying as company profit. 45% means consumers see 45 cents of every dollar of AI gains.

Capital Flight SensitivityAdjustable

How aggressively investment and capital move to lower-tax countries when taxes rise. 0 = capital doesn't move. 1.0 = capital moves very aggressively. Real economies sit between 0.2–0.4.

Interest RatesAdjustable

The background interest rate environment — what it costs governments to borrow. Short-term (like central bank rate) and long-term (like 10-year bond yield) can be set separately.

Simulation LengthAdjustable

How many years into the future the model runs. Longer horizons show compounding effects but become less reliable. 8 years is the standard; 15–20 years is 'long-run' analysis.

AI Adoption SpeedAuto-generated

How fast AI spreads through the economy — starts slow, then accelerates as adoption becomes mainstream, then plateaus. This follows an S-curve and is generated automatically based on your simulation length.

GDP WeightingFixed: GDP

How countries are weighted when computing 'world' averages. GDP weighting means larger economies have more influence on global numbers, which is the standard approach for trade and policy analysis.