Methodology · Public overview

What GAMES
measures
and why.

GAMES is a structural economic intelligence platform. It tracks the macroeconomic consequences of artificial intelligence adoption across 218 simulator-ready economies using a snapshot-first data warehouse, audited refresh pipeline, multi-tier source hierarchy, and disciplined calibration methodology.

This page outlines what GAMES measures, the questions it supports, and the limits users should keep in mind.

0Sovereign economies
0Model variables tracked
0Source layers
SnapshotAudited data mode
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The Questions

Questions GAMES answers

This question set reflects the main decisions users bring to GAMES—from national policy design to market and public-impact analysis.

PublicCitizen questions
  • ·Will AI increase or decrease unemployment in my country?
  • ·If AI adoption is aggressive, what happens to wages over ten years?
  • ·Does AI lead to deflation or inflation in my country?
  • ·How does AI affect government debt and taxes?
  • ·Which sectors in my country are most exposed to AI?
  • ·How does my country compare to peers under the same scenario?
PremiumPolicymaker questions
  • ·What level of universal income keeps aggregate demand stable under 30% AI adoption?
  • ·What is the fiscal impact of a robot tax versus a VAT increase?
  • ·How does capital flight respond to different corporate tax rates?
  • ·If AI adoption is deflationary, do we risk a debt-deflation spiral?
  • ·What spending mix minimises unemployment while controlling debt?
  • ·Which tax structure stabilises debt-to-GDP over twenty years?
PremiumResearch questions
  • ·How sensitive is GDP to AI productivity gain versus labour displacement?
  • ·How does price pass-through affect long-run inflation outcomes?
  • ·What is the elasticity of capital flight to tax differentials?
  • ·How do AI shocks propagate through trade and capital flow networks?
  • ·Which scenario parameter ranges lead to unstable equilibria?
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GAMES does not assume unresolved policy choices. Key levers remain user-defined, and outputs are tied explicitly to those assumptions.

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Intelligence Outputs

Intelligence outputs

Every number in GAMES has a source, a quality flag, and a provenance chain. The six output categories below represent what the platform delivers — each calibrated to observed national accounts before any scenario is applied.

01All tiers
Macroeconomic trajectory
Multi-year path for real GDP, unemployment, government debt, and tax revenue — calibrated to observed national accounts and refreshed through audited source snapshots.
02Policymaker
Fiscal balance analysis
Primary balance, interest burden, and debt sustainability trajectories across policy scenarios. Identifies risk corridors for debt-deflation and fiscal dominance dynamics.
03All tiers
Sectoral exposure map
Country-by-country ranking of sector vulnerability to AI displacement — agriculture, industry, and services — weighted by employment share and AI exposure intensity.
04All tiers
Global vulnerability index
Composite vulnerability score across 218 economies, enabling peer comparison by income group, region, and structural characteristics.
05Policymaker
Policy scenario engine
Nine canonical policy scenarios — from baseline continuation to robot-tax funding of UBI — each with a stated fiscal mechanism and distributional consequence.
06Research
Trade and capital corridors
Network analysis of shock propagation through bilateral trade and capital flow matrices. Maps which countries transmit shocks and which absorb them.
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Data Quality

Data quality and sources

GAMES operates a snapshot-first source hierarchy. International provider data, generated fallback tables, and manual override registries are separated, audited, and surfaced through provenance rather than blended into a single unqualified number.

AnchorObserved. Directly from IMF/OECD/GMD. Highest trust.
ObservedOfficial statistics from international organisations.
SupplementaryAnnual datasets, regional bodies, statutory rate surveys.
FallbackStructured estimation where primary sources are absent. Always flagged.
SourceScopeRefreshTierCoverage
GMD · Global Macro Database239 countries · 14 required macro indicatorsSnapshot 2026-02-20Anchor86.3%
World Bank · WDI sector and development data214 countries · sector VA/labour/digital/development indicatorsSnapshot 2026-03-28Observed96.0% core sector coverage
ILO · Labour Force Data228 countries · unemployment, labour force, wage, hours, informal, and labour-share feedsSnapshot 2026-03-16Observed95.8% core labour coverage
IMF · WEO / DataMapper / FSI195 countries · GDP, inflation, unemployment, debt, balance, and financial-stability indicatorsSnapshot 2026-03-16Anchor91.7% WEO coverage
OECD · Revenue Statistics38 countries · direct tax composition and social contribution anchorsSnapshot 2026-03-16Observed100% core tax coverage
OECD_GRS · Global Revenue StatisticsExtended tax-composition fallback beyond direct OECD membersSnapshot / annual releaseSupplementaryUsed in tax fallback ladder
IMF_GFS · Government Finance StatisticsTax and social-contribution components for government-finance fallbackSnapshot / static cacheSupplementaryUsed after OECD/OECD_GRS
EU Tax ObservatoryEffective labour and capital tax evidence when configuredFile / URL datasetSupplementaryOptional provider
Statutory tax fallback table218 countries · VAT/GST/sales, PIT/SSC, CIT, and special-regime referencesAnnual / generatedFallback218 rows
Household bridge tablesOECD Table 14, UN SNA, World Bank remittances, WB/ILO employment proxyGenerated / reviewed CSVSupplementary38 / 8 / 214 / 208 rows
Manual override registriesTerritory evidence, sector fixes, labour fixes, and special fiscal regimesReviewed CSVSupplementary255 / 15 / 11 rows
Linkage layerTrade and capital-flow matrices with synthetic RAS fallbackSnapshot / local fixturesFallbackFlagged by provenance
Coverage note · Observed sources cover most economies; remaining gaps use structured estimates that are explicitly flagged in outputs.
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Model Scope

Model scope and limits

GAMES produces directional intelligence — not point forecasts. Understanding the boundary between what the model can support and what it cannot is essential to using it responsibly.

✓GAMES can support
  • Directional GDP trajectories under stated scenarios
  • Relative vulnerability rankings across 218 economies
  • Fiscal sustainability analysis under different tax structures
  • Comparative sector exposure to AI-driven displacement
  • Policy scenario impact on unemployment and welfare spending
  • Trade and capital flow shock propagation between countries
✗GAMES cannot replace
  • Predict exact GDP figures or dates of economic events
  • Forecast political decisions or central bank actions
  • Replace sovereign credit ratings or official IMF assessments
  • Account for unprecedented technological discontinuities
  • Substitute for country-specific legal or regulatory analysis
On the 15-year horizon

All public trajectories currently use a 15-year forward simulation from the selected data anchor year. Structural uncertainty rises with horizon length, so GAMES treats the output as scenario analysis rather than a point forecast. Users seeking longer-horizon claims should treat GAMES output as a foundation for scenario-specific extensions, not a terminal forecast.

◉GAMES reliability pledge

Each reported value includes source, method, anchor year, and quality tier. Estimated values are labeled as estimates, not presented as observed fact.