Methodology · Public overview

What GAMES
measures
and why.

GAMES is a structural economic intelligence platform. It tracks the macroeconomic consequences of artificial intelligence adoption across 218 sovereign economies using daily live data feeds, a multi-tier source hierarchy, and a disciplined calibration methodology developed over three years.

This page outlines what GAMES measures, the questions it supports, and the limits users should keep in mind.

0Sovereign economies
0Model variables tracked
0Primary data sources
DailyCore data refresh
◆
The Questions

Questions GAMES answers

This question set reflects the main decisions users bring to GAMES—from national policy design to market and public-impact analysis.

PublicCitizen questions
  • ·Will AI increase or decrease unemployment in my country?
  • ·If AI adoption is aggressive, what happens to wages over ten years?
  • ·Does AI lead to deflation or inflation in my country?
  • ·How does AI affect government debt and taxes?
  • ·Which sectors in my country are most exposed to AI?
  • ·How does my country compare to peers under the same scenario?
PremiumPolicymaker questions
  • ·What level of universal income keeps aggregate demand stable under 30% AI adoption?
  • ·What is the fiscal impact of a robot tax versus a VAT increase?
  • ·How does capital flight respond to different corporate tax rates?
  • ·If AI adoption is deflationary, do we risk a debt-deflation spiral?
  • ·What spending mix minimises unemployment while controlling debt?
  • ·Which tax structure stabilises debt-to-GDP over twenty years?
PremiumResearch questions
  • ·How sensitive is GDP to AI productivity gain versus labour displacement?
  • ·How does price pass-through affect long-run inflation outcomes?
  • ·What is the elasticity of capital flight to tax differentials?
  • ·How do AI shocks propagate through trade and capital flow networks?
  • ·Which scenario parameter ranges lead to unstable equilibria?
◈

GAMES does not assume unresolved policy choices. Key levers remain user-defined, and outputs are tied explicitly to those assumptions.

◆
Intelligence Outputs

Intelligence outputs

Every number in GAMES has a source, a quality flag, and a provenance chain. The six output categories below represent what the platform delivers — each calibrated to observed national accounts before any scenario is applied.

01All tiers
Macroeconomic trajectory
Multi-year path for real GDP, unemployment, government debt, and tax revenue — calibrated to observed national accounts and updated daily from live data feeds.
02Policymaker
Fiscal balance analysis
Primary balance, interest burden, and debt sustainability trajectories across policy scenarios. Identifies risk corridors for debt-deflation and fiscal dominance dynamics.
03All tiers
Sectoral exposure map
Country-by-country ranking of sector vulnerability to AI displacement — agriculture, industry, and services — weighted by employment share and AI exposure intensity.
04All tiers
Global vulnerability index
Composite vulnerability score across 218 economies, enabling peer comparison by income group, region, and structural characteristics.
05Policymaker
Policy scenario engine
Nine canonical policy scenarios — from baseline continuation to robot-tax funding of UBI — each with a stated fiscal mechanism and distributional consequence.
06Research
Trade and capital corridors
Network analysis of shock propagation through bilateral trade and capital flow matrices. Maps which countries transmit shocks and which absorb them.
◆
Data Quality

Data quality and sources

GAMES operates a nine-level source priority hierarchy. Every country receives data from the highest-quality source available. Where no primary source exists, structured estimation methods fill the gap — and every fill is flagged transparently in the output.

AnchorObserved. Directly from IMF/OECD/GMD. Highest trust.
ObservedOfficial statistics from international organisations.
SupplementaryAnnual datasets, regional bodies, statutory rate surveys.
FallbackStructured estimation where primary sources are absent. Always flagged.
SourceScopeRefreshTierCoverage
GMD · Global Macro Data239 countries · 14 core indicatorsDailyAnchor86%
IMF · World Economic OutlookGDP growth, inflation, debt, fiscal balanceDailyAnchor90%
OECD · Revenue Statistics30 direct members + 80 via GRS extensionDailyObserved100%
ILO · Labour Force DataEmployment, wages, sectoral sharesDailyObserved92%
World Bank · Sector AccountsAgriculture / industry / services as % GDPDailyObserved95%
IMF · Government Finance Statistics113 countries, 5-category tax compositionQuarterlyObserved52%
EU Tax ObservatoryEffective labour and capital tax ratesDailySupplementaryEU+
Tax Foundation · PwC Rate SurveysStatutory CIT/VAT/PIT rates, 189 countriesAnnualSupplementary87%
ATAF · CIAT Regional DatabasesAfrica (36) and Latin America (17)AnnualSupplementaryRegional
Coverage note · Observed sources cover most economies; remaining gaps use structured estimates that are explicitly flagged in outputs.
◆
Model Scope

Model scope and limits

GAMES produces directional intelligence — not point forecasts. Understanding the boundary between what the model can support and what it cannot is essential to using it responsibly.

✓GAMES can support
  • Directional GDP trajectories under stated scenarios
  • Relative vulnerability rankings across 218 economies
  • Fiscal sustainability analysis under different tax structures
  • Comparative sector exposure to AI-driven displacement
  • Policy scenario impact on unemployment and welfare spending
  • Trade and capital flow shock propagation between countries
✗GAMES cannot replace
  • Predict exact GDP figures or dates of economic events
  • Forecast political decisions or central bank actions
  • Replace sovereign credit ratings or official IMF assessments
  • Account for unprecedented technological discontinuities
  • Substitute for country-specific legal or regulatory analysis
On the 8-year horizon

All trajectories run an 8-year forward simulation from the current data anchor year. Beyond 8 years, structural uncertainty accumulates to the point where directional conclusions become unreliable. The model does not extrapolate beyond this window. Users seeking longer-horizon analysis should treat GAMES output as a foundation for scenario-specific extensions, not a terminal forecast.

◉GAMES reliability pledge

Each reported value includes source, method, anchor year, and quality tier. Estimated values are labeled as estimates, not presented as observed fact.