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AI Fiscal Multipliers Are Not What Treasuries Think

Traditional fiscal multiplier models assume labor-intensive stimulus. AI changes the arithmetic. We simulate 40 economies to show how.

GAMES Research Desk·April 2026·12 min read·Scenario: Policy Comparison
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Key Findings
  • Fiscal multipliers drop 18–34% in economies with high AI capital share.
  • Direct employment stimulus loses effectiveness as automation absorbs new capacity.
  • Targeted human-services spending retains multiplier strength where capital-intensive spending does not.